Overview
Most inventory forecasting fails on two ends of the spectrum: fast movers get generic moving-average forecasts that miss seasonality and promotions, and slow movers get forecasted like fast movers which leads to massive overstock or dead inventory. Safety stock is usually a flat multiplier ("2 weeks of cover") that ignores actual demand variance and lead-time variability.
The Inventory Demand Forecasting System handles both regimes correctly: time-series decomposition (trend + seasonality + promotion) for fast movers, Croston/TSB for intermittent demand, and safety stock calculated from service-level target × standard deviation of demand during lead time.
What you get: - SKU classification (fast/slow/intermittent/lumpy) - Time-series decomposition for regular-demand SKUs - Croston's method + TSB for intermittent-demand SKUs - Promotion lift modeling (price elasticity) - Safety stock formula per service-level target - Reorder point and order quantity recommendations - Stockout probability and expected shortage cost - Forecast accuracy tracking (MAPE, bias) per SKU class
Built for: supply chain planners, e-commerce operators, and retail buyers who manage diverse SKU portfolios where one-size-fits-all forecasting creates both stockouts and dead inventory.